A POPULATION-BASED-FRAMEWORK-FOR-CREATING-ADDITIONAL-PROVINCES-IN-PAKISTAN

 

A POPULATION-BASED-FRAMEWORK-FOR-CREATING-ADDITIONAL-PROVINCES-IN-PAKISTAN

A Constitutional Proposal for Democratic Legitimacy, Equal Representation, Resource Justice and Balanced Federation

Pakistan is once again discussing the question of creating additional provinces or administrative units. This debate should not be treated merely as a political contest between parties, provinces or institutions. It should be addressed as a fundamental question of how the federation can distribute political power, administrative responsibility, economic resources and development opportunities fairly among its citizens and regions.

Pakistan has a rapidly increasing population, enormous geographical diversity, unequal development levels and significant differences in the contribution and burden of its provinces. The existing provincial structure was created under historical circumstances that are very different from those of today.

Therefore, instead of creating provinces on the basis of political convenience, ethnic slogans or temporary political interests, Pakistan should consider a clear constitutional principle:

"Every approximately 20 million people should constitute a standard provincial population unit, subject to geographical continuity, administrative viability, economic sustainability, historical identity and the democratic consent of the people concerned."

This principle would not mean mechanically drawing boundaries after every census. Rather, it would establish a population benchmark for determining when an existing province has grown sufficiently to justify the creation of one or more additional provinces.

1. THE BASIC PRINCIPLE: ONE PROVINCE FOR APPROXIMATELY 20 MILLION PEOPLE

The fundamental proposal is that approximately 20 million inhabitants should constitute a normal population benchmark for a province.

For example, if a province has approximately 60 million people, it could potentially be reorganized into three provinces or equivalent constitutional units, subject to proper geographical, economic and administrative studies.

If another province has approximately 40 million people, it could potentially form two provinces.

A province with approximately 20 million people could remain as one province.

However, population should be the starting point, not the only criterion.

The final boundaries should also consider:

• Geographical continuity; • Administrative accessibility; • Economic viability; • Historical and cultural identities; • Existing divisions and districts; • Natural resource patterns; • Water systems and river basins; • Infrastructure; • Urban and rural balance; • Security and governance requirements; • Local community consent; • Protection of minorities; • Sustainable fiscal arrangements.

The objective should therefore be "population-balanced federalism", not uncontrolled fragmentation.

2. WHY THE 20-MILLION PRINCIPLE CAN STRENGTHEN DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY

Pakistan's National Assembly is fundamentally based on population representation, while the Senate provides equal representation to the provinces.

This creates an important constitutional tension.

A very large province possesses a much greater number of National Assembly seats because of its population. Consequently, political parties that dominate that province can potentially exercise substantial influence over federal governments.

This is constitutionally understandable from the principle of representation by population, but it can also create a perception among smaller provinces that political power is permanently concentrated in one geographical region.

Creating provinces with relatively comparable populations could reduce this imbalance.

Instead of allowing one province to contain a disproportionately large share of the country's population, population-balanced provinces would create a federation in which political authority is distributed among a larger number of constitutionally recognized units.

This would not eliminate population-based democracy.

Rather, it would bring the population of each province closer to a comparable range while preserving the principle that citizens should be represented according to population in the National Assembly.

3. THIS IS NOT ANTI-PUNJAB, ANTI-KP, ANTI-SINDH OR ANTI-BALOCHISTAN

The proposal must be explicitly protected from ethnic or provincial interpretation.

The purpose is not to weaken Punjab.

The purpose is not to strengthen KP against Punjab.

The purpose is not to divide Sindh against the wishes of Sindh's people.

The purpose is not to fragment Balochistan.

The purpose is to create a federation in which political, administrative and economic power is distributed more evenly.

A population-based formula would apply equally to every province.

If a province grows beyond the established population benchmark, the same constitutional principle should apply to it irrespective of its political identity.

Thus, the rule would be:

"Same population principle, same constitutional procedure, same democratic test and same rights for every province."

4. PROVINCES SHOULD NOT BE CREATED BY EXECUTIVE DECISION

No new province should be created simply because a federal government, military establishment, political party or individual leader wants it.

Likewise, no province should be divided merely because a powerful political group believes that division would benefit it.

The creation of a province permanently changes the constitutional distribution of power.

Therefore, it should require:

• Constitutional amendment; • Parliamentary approval according to the Constitution; • Approval of the concerned provincial assembly where constitutionally required; • Public consultation; • Transparent population and administrative data; • Independent boundary and viability commission; • Local referendum or another constitutionally valid democratic consent mechanism where agreed; • Protection of existing communities and minorities; • A transparent division of assets, liabilities, employees and institutions.

The most important principle is that the people must be the ultimate source of legitimacy.

5. THE "20 MILLION POPULATION" RULE SHOULD BE A BENCHMARK, NOT A RIGID FORMULA

Pakistan cannot be divided into provinces using mathematics alone.

For example, mountains, deserts, rivers and remote areas can make administration substantially more difficult than population figures indicate.

Therefore, the proposed formula should allow a reasonable population band around 20 million.

A constitutional commission could establish, for example, a population range rather than requiring exactly 20 million people.

The commission could consider population, territory, accessibility, revenue potential, development needs and administrative costs before recommending a new province.

This would prevent artificial boundary-making.

6. THE REAL OBJECTIVE: EQUALIZE THE SCALE OF GOVERNANCE

The present provincial structure means that some provinces govern tens of millions of people while many administrative responsibilities remain concentrated at the provincial capital.

A smaller population per province would make governance more accessible.

A citizen in a remote district would potentially be closer to:

• The provincial government; • The provincial assembly; • The High Court bench; • The police command; • Revenue administration; • Health authorities; • Education authorities; • Development institutions.

This could reduce the enormous distance between citizens and government.

7. NEW PROVINCES MUST NOT SIMPLY CREATE NEW CAPITALS

Creating additional provinces without transferring power to the people would merely create additional bureaucracies.

Therefore, provincial restructuring must be accompanied by genuine local government reform.

Article 140A of the Constitution already provides for political, administrative and financial devolution to elected local governments.

The principle should therefore be:

Federation → Province → District → Local Government

rather than:

Federation → Province → Provincial bureaucracy → Citizen.

The district and local governments should receive meaningful authority over local development, municipal services, education, health, roads, water supply and other appropriate functions.

8. RESOURCE JUSTICE MUST BE PART OF THE PROVINCIAL RESET

Creating provinces without resolving resource distribution would not solve Pakistan's fundamental federal problems.

Pakistan's major natural resources include:

• Water; • Hydropower; • Natural gas; • Petroleum; • Minerals; • Forests; • Land; • Fisheries; • Renewable energy resources.

A new federal compact should recognize the economic burden carried by the region where a resource is produced, extracted, stored or permanently occupied.

The principle should be:

"National resources should serve the whole federation, but the region and communities carrying the permanent economic, environmental and social burden must receive a constitutionally protected and transparent share of benefits."

This is particularly important for dams, reservoirs, hydropower projects, mineral extraction and other projects that permanently affect local land and communities.

9. RESOURCE-HOST RIGHTS

A resource-producing or resource-host province should have meaningful economic participation.

For example:

Hydropower: The province hosting the generation facility should receive the constitutionally determined benefit from generation, together with appropriate host-community development benefits.

Natural gas and petroleum: The producing region should receive constitutionally guaranteed royalties and other benefits.

Minerals: The province and affected communities should receive an equitable share of the economic value generated from extraction.

Dams and reservoirs: Affected communities should receive compensation not merely for the original acquisition of land but also for permanent livelihood disruption, environmental impact, infrastructure loss and long-term opportunity costs.

10. WATER REQUIRES A SPECIAL FEDERAL ARRANGEMENT

Water cannot be treated exactly like minerals, gas or petroleum because rivers cross provincial boundaries.

Therefore, Pakistan needs a basin-wide water-sharing system based on transparent measurement rather than provincial ownership of flowing water.

The Indus River system should be governed through:

• Real-time measurement; • Transparent reservoir data; • Independent auditing; • Agreed allocations; • Shortage-sharing rules; • Environmental-flow requirements; • Compensation mechanisms; • Stronger institutional dispute resolution.

The 1991 Water Accord should remain an important foundation, but its implementation, measurement mechanisms and distribution consequences should be continuously reviewed through constitutional institutions and agreed technical processes.

No province should be able to claim permanent ownership over a river merely because it lies upstream.

At the same time, no province should be expected to bear permanent social and environmental costs without a fair share of benefits.

11. HYDROPOWER AND ELECTRICITY SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOUNTED FOR TRANSPARENTLY

The economic value of hydropower should not be reduced simply to the headline generation cost per unit.

A transparent accounting system should distinguish:

• Generation cost; • Transmission cost; • Distribution cost; • Capacity payments; • Taxes and duties; • System losses; • Cross-subsidies; • Hydropower royalties; • Net hydel profit; • Environmental and social costs.

This would allow provinces and citizens to understand who produces the resource, who bears the burden, who consumes it and who receives the economic benefit.

12. HOST COMMUNITIES MUST BECOME STAKEHOLDERS

One of the major weaknesses of Pakistan's development model has been that large national projects can transform local communities without giving those communities a sufficiently strong and permanent economic stake.

A new national policy should therefore establish a "Host Community Development Fund" for major national projects.

A defined portion of project-related revenue could finance:

• Schools; • Hospitals; • Drinking-water systems; • Roads; • Electricity infrastructure; • Scholarships; • Employment and technical training; • Environmental restoration; • Local businesses; • Resettlement and livelihood programmes.

This would transform affected populations from perceived victims of development into stakeholders in national development.

13. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MUST ALSO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE WHOLE FEDERATION

Provincial restructuring alone will not solve the problem if the most influential federal institutions remain perceived as concentrated in one region.

Pakistan therefore needs greater provincial diversity in:

• Federal bureaucracy; • Key regulatory institutions; • Federal corporations; • Diplomatic services; • Economic institutions; • Security institutions; • National commissions.

This should not mean compromising merit.

The principle should be:

"Merit plus equitable national representation."

No citizen should be disadvantaged merely because of provincial origin.

Likewise, no province should be treated as a permanent reservoir of talent while another province is perceived to dominate the most powerful institutions.

14. NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND SENATE: A BALANCED MODEL

The National Assembly should continue to represent citizens primarily according to population.

The Senate should continue to protect the equality of provinces.

However, for matters directly affecting provincial autonomy, boundaries and resource rights, the Senate and Council of Common Interests should have stronger constitutional safeguards.

Major decisions concerning:

• Provincial boundaries; • Natural resources; • Water; • NFC; • Inter-provincial infrastructure; • Major dams; • Electricity policy affecting provincial rights; • Constitutional distribution of powers

should require meaningful participation of the affected provinces.

This would preserve both democratic population representation and federal equality.

15. STRENGTHEN THE COUNCIL OF COMMON INTERESTS

The Council of Common Interests should become one of the central institutions of Pakistan's federal compact.

It should have:

• Permanent professional technical support; • Publicly available minutes and decisions where security does not prevent disclosure; • Independent data verification; • Strong monitoring mechanisms; • Time-bound dispute resolution; • Regular review of water, energy and natural-resource issues.

The objective should be to resolve federal-provincial disputes institutionally rather than through political confrontation.

16. NFC REFORM SHOULD RECOGNIZE MORE THAN POPULATION

Population should remain an important factor in resource distribution, but it should not necessarily be the only factor.

A future NFC framework could consider:

• Population; • Poverty; • Revenue generation; • Backwardness; • Area and geographical difficulty; • Cost of service delivery; • Natural-resource contribution; • Environmental burden; • Host-community obligations; • Infrastructure deficits.

This would create a more comprehensive concept of fiscal justice.

17. THE PRINCIPLE OF RECIPROCITY

Pakistan's provinces should recognize that the federation is an economic partnership.

If one province provides water, another may provide agricultural production.

If one provides hydropower, another may provide industry.

If one provides gas or minerals, another may provide markets and manufacturing.

Therefore, the correct principle is not:

"Who owns Pakistan's resources?"

The correct question is:

"How can every part of Pakistan receive a fair and transparent return for its contribution while the federation as a whole remains economically integrated?"

This approach can transform provincial competition into economic cooperation.

18. FREE MOVEMENT OF GOODS MUST REMAIN PROTECTED

Resource disputes must never become justification for restricting ordinary citizens from purchasing food, agricultural products or other lawful goods from another province.

Inter-provincial commerce should remain protected.

Water, wheat, electricity, gas and minerals should not become political weapons.

Disputes should be resolved through the Constitution, CCI, courts, IRSA and other lawful institutions rather than through retaliatory restrictions.

19. SECURITY AND RESOURCE RIGHTS MUST BE SEPARATED

Political disagreements, terrorism or security problems in one region must not result in collective punishment of its ordinary citizens.

An armed group cannot represent an entire province.

Likewise, the legitimate constitutional rights of citizens cannot be suspended merely because security challenges exist in their region.

Pakistan needs a clear distinction between:

Security responsibility → dealing with individuals and organizations responsible for violence.

Provincial rights → protecting constitutional rights of all citizens.

Resource entitlement → applying constitutional and legal rules.

Economic cooperation → benefiting the federation as a whole.

This separation is essential for national unity.

20. THE CREATION OF PROVINCES SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN "EQUAL FEDERATION COMPACT"

The creation of new provinces should therefore be only one part of a much larger constitutional reset.

The national compact should include:

1. Population-balanced provinces;

2. Strong local governments;

3. Fair NFC distribution;

4. Transparent water accounting;

5. Resource-host rights;

6. Host-community compensation;

7. Strong Council of Common Interests;

8. Provincial equality in federal institutions;

9. Merit-based national institutions with equitable participation;

10. Protection of inter-provincial commerce;

11. Democratic consent for new provinces;

12. Transparent division of provincial assets and liabilities;

13. Equal constitutional citizenship;

14. Long-term regional development guarantees.

15. POSSIBLE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATIVE MODEL

A future Pakistan could therefore develop a structure such as:

FEDERATION ↓ POPULATION-BALANCED PROVINCES / FEDERAL UNITS ↓ REGIONS OR DIVISIONS ↓ DISTRICTS ↓ TEHSILS / SUBDIVISIONS ↓ LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ↓ UNION / VILLAGE / NEIGHBOURHOOD GOVERNMENTS

The province would remain responsible for major provincial functions.

The district would become the principal administrative and development unit.

The local government would become the principal service-delivery institution.

The Federation would concentrate on matters that genuinely require national coordination.

22. THE PRINCIPLE OF "NO PERMANENT MAJORITY"

A healthy federation should avoid creating a situation in which one geographical region can permanently dominate the political system simply because historical provincial boundaries have concentrated population there.

The solution is not to take democratic rights away from citizens.

The solution is to create a constitutional structure in which:

Every citizen has an equal vote.

Every province has constitutional dignity.

Every region has access to development.

Every resource-host area receives a fair benefit.

Every province participates meaningfully in federal decision-making.

And no province is treated as an inferior component of Pakistan.

23. THE FINAL TEST: PUBLIC CONSENT

The most important question should ultimately be:

"Do the people living in the proposed province want this arrangement?"

Administrative restructuring must not be imposed from Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar, Karachi, Quetta or any other political centre.

Nor should it be imposed by an unelected institution.

The people must be consulted through constitutionally recognized democratic mechanisms.

Only then can a new province acquire durable legitimacy.

24. CONCLUSION: FROM PROVINCIAL COMPETITION TO A BALANCED FEDERATION

Pakistan does not necessarily need more provinces simply for the sake of having more provinces.

Pakistan needs a better distribution of political power, administrative responsibility, economic opportunity and resource benefits.

A population benchmark of approximately 20 million people can provide an objective starting point for considering additional provinces.

But the formula must be combined with geography, economic viability, historical identity, administrative accessibility and democratic consent.

The ultimate objective should be to create a Pakistan in which no province feels permanently powerful, permanently neglected or permanently exploited.

The future federal compact should therefore be based on five principles:

EQUAL CITIZENSHIP.

EQUAL CONSTITUTIONAL DIGNITY.

FAIR REPRESENTATION.

FAIR RESOURCE BENEFIT.

DEMOCRATIC CONSENT.

If Pakistan adopts these principles, the debate over new provinces can move away from political confrontation and toward constitutional reform.

The question should no longer be:

"Which province will become weaker?"

The question should be:

"How can every Pakistani citizen, every province and every resource-producing community become stronger within one united federation?"

That should be the real meaning of a national "reset."

A restructured Pakistan should not be a Pakistan divided against itself.

It should be a Pakistan in which power is distributed, resources are accounted for, communities are compensated, provinces cooperate and citizens—not political corridors—remain the ultimate source of democratic legitimacy.